KORE mission simulation

Three strategies, ten thousand journeys

Here the whole mission runs in the model: launch in Earth orbit, almost 300 years of darkness, arrival at Proxima b, landing and first harvest. Disturbances come at random, at the model's rates. Every strategy flies the same journeys, so differences come from the decisions and not from chance.

Every journey starts in year 0 and knows only what is known at launch. Landing sites and growth under Proxima are the model's own values, not those from the book.

The three strategies

Rule-basedLevel of knowledge: Model
Fixed rules and calendar: refresh as soon as germination falls below 50%, check the model every ten years, land at the brightest permitted site.
Forward-planningLevel of knowledge: Model
Plans back from the end: refreshes timed so that at least 50% germinate on arrival. After a germination test it plans again. It lands where little ultraviolet arrives and the light is still enough.
RobustLevel of knowledge: Model
Like the forward-planning strategy, but it reckons with the unfavourable edge of every measurement and holds back a reserve of nutrients.

How success is measured

Level of knowledge: Fiction

  • On arrival at least three viable archetypes, among them the red light collector.
  • By year 305 a first harvest with at least 2 kg of usable biomass.
  • The landing site lies at least 200 km from wet basins.

A journey counts as a success when all three conditions hold. Total loss, the loss of the red light collector, is counted separately. Across all journeys it may be at most 5%.

Stricter than these criteria are KORE's planning goals: at least 50% germination of the red light collector on arrival and a first harvest in at least 95% of journeys.

For release the model only checks the choice of landing site. It does not model leaks in the habitat.

Result with 10,000 journeys per strategy

Level of knowledge: Model

Calculated before the page was built, 10,000 journeys per strategy with the same random numbers.

Share of journeys per strategy, 95% interval in brackets
StrategySuccessTotal lossViable on arrivalFirst harvestRed light goal
Rule-based55.4%
(54.4 to 56.3)
0.52%98.8%55.4%92.7%
Forward-planning51.7%
(50.8 to 52.7)
0.22%99.7%51.7%90.8%
Robust52.1%
(51.2 to 53.1)
0.23%99.2%52.2%98.3%

With ample nutrients the simple rule wins, because it refreshes more often and the seed arrives fresher. Planning saves nutrients and pays off when they become scarce. Try it below with “Scarce nutrients”.

Difference to the rule-based strategy, calculated over the same journeys: forward-planning -3.6 percentage points (-4.3 to -3.0), robust -3.2 (-3.9 to -2.5).

No strategy reaches the planning goal for the harvest. That would take a first harvest in at least 95% of journeys.

Calculation
  1. Success rate: Rule-based

    k: journeys with success, n: all journeys.

    p^=knp^=5,53610,000p^=55.36%
  2. 95% interval: Rule-based

    Wilson interval with z = 1.96. Centre and half-width of the interval are shown below, the result is the bounds.

    p^+z22n±zp^(1−p^)n+z24n21+z2nz=1.96centre≈0.55358half-width≈0.00974[54.38%;56.33%]
  3. Success rate: Forward-planning

    k: journeys with success, n: all journeys.

    p^=knp^=5,17310,000p^=51.73%
  4. 95% interval: Forward-planning

    Wilson interval with z = 1.96. Centre and half-width of the interval are shown below, the result is the bounds.

    p^+z22n±zp^(1−p^)n+z24n21+z2nz=1.96centre≈0.51729half-width≈0.00979[50.75%;52.71%]
  5. Success rate: Robust

    k: journeys with success, n: all journeys.

    p^=knp^=5,21410,000p^=52.14%
  6. 95% interval: Robust

    Wilson interval with z = 1.96. Centre and half-width of the interval are shown below, the result is the bounds.

    p^+z22n±zp^(1−p^)n+z24n21+z2nz=1.96centre≈0.52139half-width≈0.00979[51.16%;53.12%]
  7. Paired difference: Forward-planning versus Rule-based

    a: journeys that succeed only with the first strategy, b: only with the second, n: all journeys. Calculated over the same journeys, so narrower than two separate intervals.

    d=a−bnv=a+b−nd2n−1d±1.96vnd=352−71510,000=−0.0363d=−3.63% [−4.27%;−2.99%]
  8. Paired difference: Robust versus Rule-based

    a: journeys that succeed only with the first strategy, b: only with the second, n: all journeys. Calculated over the same journeys, so narrower than two separate intervals.

    d=a−bnv=a+b−nd2n−1d±1.96vnd=465−78710,000=−0.0322d=−3.22% [−3.91%;−2.53%]

Run it yourself

Change the assumptions and run again. The calculation runs in your browser, each strategy in its own background process. 300 journeys take about five seconds on a current computer and up to about half a minute on a phone.

Level of knowledge: Model

Run it yourself

1 is the model value. From about 1.3, that is 30% more loss, the forward-planning strategy leads.

Journeys per strategy

A single journey

One journey in detail, with the seed and strategy of your choice. This is a random run of the model, not the course of the book.

A single journey

Result of this journey (Rule-based, Seed 1): success. First harvest in year 303.5 with 4.68 kg usable biomass. Landing site: day side.

Power01,0002,0000100200300Power (W)Year 0: -Year 10: 1,850 WYear 20: 1,711 WYear 30: 1,583 WYear 40: 1,453 WYear 50: 1,344 WYear 60: 1,244 WYear 70: 1,150 WYear 80: 1,064 WYear 90: 984 WYear 100: 911 WYear 110: 836 WYear 120: 773 WYear 130: 715 WYear 140: 662 WYear 150: 612 WYear 160: 566 WYear 170: 524 WYear 180: 481 WYear 190: 445 WYear 200: 411 WYear 210: 381 WYear 220: 352 WYear 230: 326 WYear 240: 301 WYear 250: 277 WYear 260: 256 WYear 270: 237 WYear 280: 219 WYear 290: 202 WYear 300: 187 WWater01002000100200300Water (l)Year 0: 119.9 lYear 10: 116.8 lYear 20: 115.6 lYear 30: 114.4 lYear 40: 113.1 lYear 50: 111.9 lYear 60: 110.7 lYear 70: 109.1 lYear 80: 107.9 lYear 90: 106.7 lYear 100: 105.5 lYear 110: 104.2 lYear 120: 103.0 lYear 130: 101.0 lYear 140: 99.8 lYear 150: 98.6 lYear 160: 97.4 lYear 170: 96.2 lYear 180: 94.9 lYear 190: 93.7 lYear 200: 92.5 lYear 210: 91.2 lYear 220: 90.0 lYear 230: 88.8 lYear 240: 87.6 lYear 250: 85.4 lYear 260: 84.2 lYear 270: 83.0 lYear 280: 81.8 lYear 290: 80.6 lYear 300: 79.3 lNutrients05100100200300Nutrients (kg)Year 0: 8.00 kgYear 10: 7.64 kgYear 20: 7.39 kgYear 30: 7.14 kgYear 40: 6.73 kgYear 50: 6.47 kgYear 60: 6.22 kgYear 70: 6.05 kgYear 80: 5.80 kgYear 90: 5.54 kgYear 100: 5.29 kgYear 110: 4.84 kgYear 120: 4.59 kgYear 130: 4.21 kgYear 140: 4.16 kgYear 150: 3.91 kgYear 160: 3.66 kgYear 170: 3.39 kgYear 180: 2.95 kgYear 190: 2.89 kgYear 200: 2.84 kgYear 210: 2.77 kgYear 220: 2.71 kgYear 230: 2.65 kgYear 240: 2.59 kgYear 250: 2.20 kgYear 260: 2.14 kgYear 270: 2.08 kgYear 280: 2.02 kgYear 290: 1.94 kgYear 300: 1.88 kgGermination of the red light collector0501000100200300Germination of the red light collector (%)Year 0: 100 %Year 10: 96 %Year 20: 90 %Year 30: 85 %Year 40: 80 %Year 50: 76 %Year 60: 72 %Year 70: 68 %Year 80: 64 %Year 90: 60 %Year 100: 57 %Year 110: 53 %Year 120: 51 %Year 130: 96 %Year 140: 91 %Year 150: 86 %Year 160: 81 %Year 170: 77 %Year 180: 72 %Year 190: 68 %Year 200: 64 %Year 210: 61 %Year 220: 57 %Year 230: 54 %Year 240: 51 %Year 250: 97 %Year 260: 92 %Year 270: 86 %Year 280: 82 %Year 290: 77 %Year 300: 73 %
Years since launch. The first almost four years with solar power are not drawn for power.
Values as a table
YearPower (W)Water (l)Nutrients (kg)Germination of the red light collector (%)
0.05,000119.98.00100
1.04,984118.97.6099
2.04,969118.47.3599
3.02,284118.07.6899
3.91,939117.57.5499
4.91,924117.47.6798
5.91,909117.37.6798
6.91,894117.27.6697
7.91,879117.07.6697
8.91,865116.97.6596
9.91,850116.87.6496
10.81,836116.77.4595
11.81,822116.67.4495
12.81,807116.47.4494
13.81,793116.37.4393
14.81,779116.27.4293
15.81,766116.17.4292
16.81,752116.07.4192
17.71,738115.87.4191
18.71,725115.77.4091
19.71,711115.67.3990
20.71,698115.57.2090
21.71,685115.47.1989
22.71,672115.27.1989
23.71,659115.17.1888
24.61,646115.07.1788
25.61,633114.97.1787
26.61,621114.87.1687
27.61,608114.67.1686
28.61,596114.57.1586
29.61,583114.47.1485
30.61,571114.36.9585
31.51,559114.26.9484
32.51,547114.16.9484
33.51,535113.96.9383
34.51,523113.86.9283
35.51,511113.76.9282
36.51,499113.66.9182
37.51,488113.56.9182
38.41,476113.36.9081
39.41,465113.26.8981
40.41,453113.16.7380
41.41,442112.96.7180
42.41,431112.86.7079
43.41,420112.76.7079
44.41,409112.66.6978
45.31,398112.56.6978
46.31,387112.36.6877
47.31,376112.26.6777
48.31,365112.16.6777
49.31,355112.06.6676
50.31,344111.96.4776
51.31,334111.76.4675
52.21,323111.66.4575
53.21,313111.56.4574
54.21,303111.46.4474
55.21,293111.36.4474
56.21,283111.16.4373
57.21,273111.06.4273
58.21,263110.96.4272
59.11,253110.86.4172
60.11,244110.76.2272
61.11,234110.56.2171
62.11,224110.46.2071
63.11,215110.36.2070
64.11,205110.26.1970
65.11,196109.75.8669
66.01,187109.66.0769
67.01,178109.56.0769
68.01,168109.46.0668
69.01,159109.36.0568
70.01,150109.16.0568
71.01,141109.05.8567
72.01,133108.95.8567
72.91,124108.85.8466
73.91,115108.75.8366
74.91,106108.55.8366
75.91,098108.45.8265
76.91,089108.35.8265
77.91,081108.25.8165
78.91,072108.15.8064
79.81,064107.95.8064
80.81,056107.85.6063
81.81,048107.75.5863
82.81,040107.65.5863
83.81,031107.45.5762
84.81,023107.35.5762
85.71,016107.25.5662
86.71,008107.15.5561
87.71,000107.05.5561
88.7992106.85.5461
89.7984106.75.5460
90.7977106.65.3460
91.7969106.55.3360
92.6962106.45.3359
93.6954106.25.3259
94.6947106.15.3259
95.6939106.05.3158
96.6932105.95.3058
97.6925105.85.3058
98.6918105.65.2957
99.5911105.55.2957
100.5904105.45.0957
101.5897105.35.0956
102.5890105.25.0856
103.5883105.05.0756
104.5876104.95.0755
105.5869104.85.0655
106.4862104.75.0655
107.4856104.65.0554
108.4849104.45.0454
109.4842104.35.0454
110.4836104.24.8453
111.4829104.14.8453
112.4823104.04.8353
113.3817103.84.8253
114.3810103.74.8252
115.3804103.64.8152
116.3798103.54.8152
117.3791103.44.8051
118.3785103.24.7951
119.3779103.14.7951
120.2773103.04.5951
121.2767102.94.5950
122.2761102.74.5750
123.2755101.93.9550
124.2749101.84.34100
125.2744101.74.3499
126.2738101.64.3998
127.1732101.44.3998
128.1726101.34.4197
129.1721101.24.4197
130.1715101.04.2196
131.1710100.94.2196
132.1704100.84.2195
133.1699100.74.1995
134.0693100.54.1994
135.0688100.44.1994
136.0683100.34.1893
137.0677100.24.1792
138.0672100.14.1792
139.066799.94.1691
140.066299.84.1691
140.965799.73.9690
141.965199.63.9590
142.964699.53.9589
143.964199.33.9489
144.963699.23.9488
145.963199.13.9388
146.962799.03.9287
147.862298.93.9287
148.861798.73.9186
149.861298.63.9186
150.860798.53.7185
151.860398.43.7085
152.859898.33.7084
153.859398.13.6984
154.758998.03.6983
155.758497.93.6883
156.758097.83.6783
157.757597.73.6782
158.757197.53.6682
159.756697.43.6681
160.756297.33.4681
161.655797.23.4580
162.655397.03.4380
163.654996.93.4379
164.654596.83.4279
165.654096.73.4278
166.653696.63.4178
167.653296.43.4078
168.552896.33.4077
169.552496.23.3977
170.552096.13.2076
171.551696.03.1976
172.551295.83.1875
173.550895.73.1875
174.550495.63.1774
175.450095.53.1774
176.449695.43.1674
177.449295.23.1573
178.448895.13.1573
179.448595.03.1472
180.448194.92.9572
181.447794.82.9472
182.347394.62.9371
183.347094.52.9371
184.346694.42.9270
185.346294.32.9270
186.345994.22.9170
187.345594.02.9069
188.345293.92.9069
189.244893.82.8968
190.244593.72.8968
191.244193.62.8868
192.243893.42.8767
193.243493.32.8767
194.243193.22.8666
195.242893.12.8566
196.142493.02.8566
197.142192.82.8465
198.141892.72.8465
199.141592.62.8365
200.141192.52.8464
201.140892.32.8364
202.140592.12.8364
203.040292.02.8163
204.039991.92.8063
205.039691.82.8062
206.039391.62.7962
207.039091.52.7862
208.038791.42.7861
209.038491.32.7761
209.938191.22.7761
210.937891.02.7660
211.937590.92.7560
212.937290.82.7560
213.936990.72.7459
214.936690.62.7459
215.936390.42.7359
216.836090.32.7258
217.835890.22.7258
218.835590.12.7158
219.835290.02.7157
220.834989.82.7057
221.834789.72.6957
222.834489.62.6956
223.734189.52.6856
224.733989.42.6856
225.733689.22.6755
226.733389.12.6655
227.733189.02.6655
228.732888.92.6554
229.732688.82.6554
230.632388.72.6454
231.632188.52.6354
232.631888.42.6353
233.631688.32.6253
234.631388.22.6253
235.631188.12.6152
236.630887.92.6052
237.530687.82.6052
238.530487.72.5951
239.530187.62.5951
240.529987.52.5851
241.529787.32.5751
242.529487.22.5750
243.429287.12.5450
244.429086.32.1550
245.428786.02.23100
246.428585.92.2299
247.428385.72.2299
248.428185.62.2198
249.427985.52.2197
250.327785.42.2097
251.327485.32.1996
252.327285.12.1996
253.327085.02.1895
254.326884.92.1895
255.326684.82.1794
256.326484.72.1794
257.226284.52.1693
258.226084.42.1693
259.225884.32.1592
260.225684.22.1492
261.225484.12.1491
262.225283.92.1390
263.225083.82.1390
264.124883.72.1289
265.124683.62.1189
266.124483.52.1188
267.124283.32.1088
268.124083.22.1087
269.123883.12.0987
270.123783.02.0886
271.023582.92.0886
272.023382.72.0785
273.023182.62.0785
274.022982.52.0684
275.022882.42.0584
276.022682.32.0584
277.022482.12.0483
277.922282.02.0483
278.922181.92.0382
279.921981.82.0282
280.921781.72.0281
281.921581.52.0181
282.921481.42.0180
283.921281.31.9880
284.821181.11.9779
285.820981.01.9779
286.820780.91.9678
287.820680.81.9678
288.820480.71.9578
289.820280.61.9477
290.820180.41.9477
291.719980.31.9376
292.719880.21.9376
293.719680.11.9275
294.719580.01.9175
295.719379.81.9175
296.719279.71.9074
297.719079.61.9074
298.618979.51.8973
299.618779.41.8873
300.018779.31.8873
300.118779.31.8873
300.218679.31.8873
300.318679.31.8873
300.418679.31.8873
300.518679.31.8873
300.518679.21.8872
300.618679.21.9372
300.718679.11.9272
300.818679.11.9172
300.918579.01.9072
300.918579.01.9072
301.018578.91.8972
301.118578.91.8872
301.218578.81.8772
301.318578.71.8672
301.418578.71.8672
301.418578.61.8572
301.518578.51.8472
301.618478.51.8372
301.718478.41.8272
301.818478.31.8172
301.818478.31.8072
301.918478.21.7972
302.018478.11.7872
302.118478.01.7672
302.218477.91.7572
302.318377.81.7472
302.318377.81.7372
302.418377.71.7272
302.518377.61.7072
302.618377.51.6972
302.718377.41.6772
302.818377.31.6672
302.818377.21.6472
302.918377.11.6372
303.018277.01.6171
303.118276.81.6071
303.218276.71.5871
303.218276.61.5671
303.318276.51.5571
303.418276.41.5371
303.518276.31.5780
303.618276.21.4880
303.718176.01.3780
303.718175.91.2480
303.818175.71.0580
303.918175.71.6978
304.018175.61.6978
304.118175.61.6878
304.118175.51.6778
304.218175.51.6778
304.318175.41.6678
304.418075.41.6578
304.518075.31.6578
304.618075.31.6478
304.618075.21.6878
304.718075.21.6878
304.818075.11.6878
304.918075.11.6778
305.018075.11.6778
Events (153)
YearEvents
0.3Culture of Storer failed
0.7Chamber A out of service (fixed part of the model)
0.7Refresh of Red-light harvester starts
2.1Refresh of Red-light harvester ends
2.1Refresh of Storer starts
3.0Refresh of Storer ends, target missed
3.0Refresh of Shadow walker starts
4.4Refresh of Shadow walker ends
5.5Sensor failed
10.0Model check starts
10.2Parameter copy restored
19.8Bit error in the parameter copy
20.0Model check starts
20.2Sensor failed
20.2Parameter copy restored
30.1Model check starts
30.2Parameter copy restored
40.0Model check starts
40.1Refresh of Pioneer starts
40.2Parameter copy restored
40.3Culture of Pioneer failed
40.4Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
40.4Refresh of Pioneer starts
40.8Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
42.7Bit error in the parameter copy
44.1Sensor failed
50.0Model check starts
50.2Parameter copy restored
60.0Model check starts
60.2Parameter copy restored
64.4Refresh of Shadow walker starts
65.7Refresh of Shadow walker ends
70.1Model check starts
70.2Parameter copy restored
77.6Bit error in the parameter copy
78.7Bit error in the parameter copy
80.0Model check starts
80.2Parameter copy restored
80.9Refresh of Pioneer starts
81.3Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
90.0Model check starts
90.2Parameter copy restored
99.2Sensor failed
100.0Model check starts
100.2Parameter copy restored
110.1Model check starts
110.2Parameter copy restored
120.0Model check starts
120.2Parameter copy restored
121.4Refresh of Pioneer starts
121.7Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
122.1Refresh of Red-light harvester starts
123.4Refresh of Red-light harvester ends
125.7Refresh of Shadow walker starts
125.8Culture of Shadow walker failed
127.1Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
127.1Refresh of Shadow walker starts
127.2Culture of Shadow walker failed
128.4Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
128.4Refresh of Shadow walker starts
128.7Culture of Shadow walker failed
129.7Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
129.7Refresh of Shadow walker starts
130.0Model check starts
130.2Parameter copy restored
130.3Culture of Shadow walker failed
131.0Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
131.0Refresh of Shadow walker starts
131.7Culture of Shadow walker failed
132.3Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
132.3Refresh of Shadow walker starts
132.9Sensor failed
133.6Refresh of Shadow walker ends
140.0Model check starts
140.2Parameter copy restored
149.2Sensor failed
150.1Model check starts
150.2Parameter copy restored
160.0Model check starts
160.2Parameter copy restored
161.8Refresh of Pioneer starts
162.1Sensor failed
162.1Sensor failed
162.2Sensor failed
162.2Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
170.0Model check starts
170.2Parameter copy restored
170.6Bit error in the parameter copy
180.0Model check starts
180.2Parameter copy restored
190.1Model check starts
193.7Refresh of Shadow walker starts
193.7Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
194.1Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
195.0Refresh of Shadow walker ends
200.1Refresh of Guardian starts
200.1Generation of Guardian without humidity sensor
200.4Culture of Guardian lost without humidity sensor
200.4Refresh of Guardian ends, target missed
200.4Refresh of Guardian starts
200.4Generation of Guardian without humidity sensor
200.8Refresh of Guardian ends, target missed
202.3Refresh of Pioneer starts
202.3Generation of Pioneer without humidity sensor
202.6Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
203.7Sensor failed
210.3Bit error in the parameter copy
242.7Refresh of Pioneer starts
242.7Generation of Pioneer without humidity sensor
243.1Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
243.5Refresh of Red-light harvester starts
243.5Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
243.9Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
243.9Culture of Red-light harvester failed
243.9Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
244.4Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
244.8Refresh of Red-light harvester ends
255.0Refresh of Shadow walker starts
255.0Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
255.4Culture of Shadow walker failed
256.3Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
256.3Refresh of Shadow walker starts
256.3Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
256.6Culture of Shadow walker failed
257.7Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
257.7Refresh of Shadow walker starts
257.7Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
258.0Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
258.1Culture of Shadow walker failed
259.0Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
259.0Refresh of Shadow walker starts
259.0Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
259.2Culture of Shadow walker failed
260.3Refresh of Shadow walker ends, target missed
260.3Refresh of Shadow walker starts
260.3Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
260.6Generation of Shadow walker without humidity sensor
261.6Refresh of Shadow walker ends
277.6Sensor failed
281.6Sensor failed
283.1Refresh of Pioneer starts
283.1Generation of Pioneer without humidity sensor
283.4Refresh of Pioneer ends, target missed
300.5Landing: day side
300.6Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
300.6Sowing of Red-light harvester
303.5Harvest of Red-light harvester: 4.68 kg usable biomass
303.5Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
303.9Culture of Red-light harvester lost without humidity sensor
303.9Generation of Red-light harvester without humidity sensor
303.9Sowing of Red-light harvester
304.6Particle stream
304.6Adaptation of Red-light harvester to the light starts again

State of the calculation

Model 0.1.0, parameters 2026-10-23.16, checksum 91f32c2a3d4c.